Meed: Kuwait, Three Gulf Countries Gain $100 Billion From Ukraine Crisis

The MEED magazine sees the rise in oil prices to extremely high levels, as well as the improvement in the Gulf Cooperation Council nations' oil resources, as benefits from the war between Russia and Ukraine.

According to Edmund O'Sullivan, former editor-in-chief of the magazine, oil exporters in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries can already consider themselves winners, as OPEC oil production is expected to rise this year, with the majority of the increase returning to Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. According to a local Arabic newspaper, these nations would benefit from windfall gains of at least $100 billion in 2022 as a result of the Ukraine conflict, which may amount to more than 10% of their anticipated GDP.

MEED looked at what happened as a result of the war, which resulted in oil prices rising above $130 a barrel in early March, noting that there is consensus that it will average around $100 in 2022, which is 50% higher than the IMF's forecast, compared to less than $70 last year. Demand is expected to slow, but it will still be above 100 million barrels per day in 2022.

Oil prices in excess of $90 may remain beyond 2023 unless the battle ends fast, according to sources, increasing GDP and export revenues across the GCC. Saudi Arabia is the only one of the four nations with a budget deficit this year, according to MEED, although the kingdom may be able to eradicate it and cut government debt to less than 30% of GDP.

This comes as the European Union plans to limit Russian gas imports, resulting in increased demand for other supplies. Only Qatar stands to profit considerably from this situation, but not anytime soon.

According to the magazine, the Gulf member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are strengthening their influence on global energy policies, and these countries are now committed to the OPEC+ production agreement with Moscow in order to maintain relations that have developed since the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991.

Despite its displeasure with the Gulf States' failure to support it, the US avoids public dispute with it, signaling that it is part of a balancing mechanism that benefits the Arab Gulf states.

The author concludes that this has been a terrible year for Ukrainians, as well as a horrible year for the globe as a whole, but that the Arab Gulf governments are working hard to guarantee that they emerge stronger than when they began.

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